Título: | OPTIMUM ALLOCATION AND RISK MEASURE IN AN ALM MODEL FOR A PENSION FUND VIA MULTI-STAGE STOCHASTIC PROGRAMMING AND BOOTSTRAP | |||||||
Autor: |
DAVI MICHEL VALLADAO |
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Colaborador(es): |
ALVARO DE LIMA VEIGA FILHO - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 29/SET/2008 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | |||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=12253&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=12253&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.12253 | |||||||
Resumo: | ||||||||
Asset and Liability Management or ALM can be defined as a
process of managing coordinately assets and liabilities in
an attempt to achieve an organization´s financial
objectives. For instance, a pension fund ALM consists in
determining the optimal investment policy which is the one
that maximizes wealth accumulated by the contributions and
minimizes the equilibrium risk defined as the insolvency
probability, i.e., the probability that the fund won´t be
able to pay all benefits during the planning horizon. The
use of stochastic programming models for ALM problems is
more difficult because of the long planning horizon.
However stochastic programming models are proposed in the
literature reducing the planning horizon and including a
chance constraint or an objective function penalization to
control the equilibrium risk for the non-considered period.
On this work, a new method for measuring and controlling the
equilibrium risk is proposed determining capital requirement
of a Brazilian pension fund for the nonconsidered period.
This developed method considers the portfolio return as the
discount rate of all net liability flows. The distribution
of this discount rate
conditioned on the optimal decisions is estimated by
bootstrapping the portfolio return embedded on the
stochastic programming solution. To sum up, this method
shows that the usual insolvency probability of the previous
models actually underestimates the pension fund`s
equilibrium risk.
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