Sand production at oil wells is a well-known problem, due to the disastrous consequences that in some cases affect the productivity of the entire reservoir. Studies about the subject have been development and a very important research line has been created. However, those progresses are more focus on sand production onset, giving less importance to the quantification issue. Whit more than twenty years, there is a field located on Maracaibo Basin, Venezuela that has been affected with this problem occasionating the closure of a big amount of wells. The problem is even bigger due to the reservoir conditions: depth (more than 5000 (m)), high pressure and temperature conditions and also rock mechanics strength (more than 50 (Mpa)) make that more advanced studies will be need for seeking the factors that affect in this phenomenon and observe if the quantifications models used in this work represent the field observations. For this, was used the commercial software of finite elements Abaqus whit the erosion sub-routine as well as the analytical Willson model based on the equivalent strength formation obtain from thick walled cylinder test development in this work also. In both methods were used real field conditions: state of stress, bottom hole pressure, pore pressure and the stress-strain rock behavior obtain form uniaxial compression test. For the numerical model were analyzed two cases, open hole (two dimension model) and perforation tunnel (three dimension model). For the analytical Willson model was just implemented the perforation tunnel case.