Título: | A DISCRETE TIME APPLICATION OF REAL OPTIONS THEORY FOR THE VALUATION OF A HIGHWAY CONCESSION PROJECT IN BRAZIL | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Autor: |
LUIZ EDUARDO TEIXEIRA BRANDAO |
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Colaborador(es): |
JOSE PAULO TEIXEIRA - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 01/JUL/2004 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=5120&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=5120&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.5120 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
One of the problems of the evaluation for Real Options is
the need to have complete markets so that non arbitrage
methods can be used for its solution. When that is not the
case, or when the determination of a dynamic portfolio of
market securities that replicate the stochastic
characteristics of the project is not feasible for any
reason, the alternative is to use an exogenous and
arbitrary discount rate. Another problem is the inclusion
of two or more uncertainty sources in the mathematical
modeling of the project, which brings a certain degree of
complexity to the problem, especially when those
uncertainties involve private risk, not correlated with the
market. This work synthesizes some Real Options Theory
concepts developed by several authors with Decision
Analysis tools to propose a method for evaluation of
projects in incomplete markets by dynamic programming using
an innovative algorithm to model the project`s stochastic
process with a binomial lattice and decision tree. The
method is computationally intense, but simpler and more
intuitive than that the traditional methods of Real
Options, allowing for a greater flexibility in the modeling
of the problem. This methodology is applied to the problem
of the valuation a highway concession in Brazil with
managerial flexibility in incomplete markets and political
risk.
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