Título: | OPTIMAL PARAMETRIZATION OF GOVERNMENT GUARANTEE IN INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Autor: |
AQUILES POLETTI MOREIRA |
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Colaborador(es): |
LUIZ EDUARDO TEIXEIRA BRANDAO - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 29/DEZ/2010 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=16674&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=16674&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.16674 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
In recent decades the participation of private capital in infrastructure
projects has increased. Considering the high level of risk of some of these
projects, there may be a need for some sort of government support mechanisms
that reduce these risks in order to continue to attract the private investor interest.
One such alternative is the Limited Minimum Revenue Guarantee, where the
investor is guaranteed a minimum revenue level for the project, limited to a preset
ceiling, or CAP, which reduces the government’s risk. This work proposes a
method to allow the government to define the optimal parameters for both the
Minimum Revenue Guarantee and the CAP, so that the private investor is
attracted to the project at the lowest cost and risk possible to the government. The
interest of the private investor is measured by the level of risk involved, which is
obtained from the probability distribution of the project´s NPV. The metric for the
government risk is assumed to be the Omega performance measure, which is
determined from the probability distribution of the guarantee under the real
options approach. Due to the complexity of the problem, an analytic solution is
not feasible and it is shown that the optimal parameters can be determined with
numerical methods. As a secondary result, it is also shown that when the
government analyses these guarantees in the context of a portfolio of projects, the
risk to the government is reduced due to the diversification effect.
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