Título: | BRANCHING PROCESSES FOR EPIDEMICS STUDY | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
JOAO PEDRO XAVIER FREITAS |
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Colaborador(es): |
ROBERTA DE QUEIROZ LIMA - Orientador RUBENS SAMPAIO FILHO - Coorientador |
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Catalogação: | 26/OUT/2023 | Língua(s): | ENGLISH - UNITED STATES |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=64469&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=64469&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.64469 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
This work models an epidemic s spreading over time with a stochastic
approach. The number of infections per infector is modeled as a discrete random variable, named here as contagion. Therefore, the evolution of the disease
over time is a stochastic process. More specifically, this propagation is modeled
as the Bienaymé-Galton-Watson process, one kind of branching process with
discrete parameter. In this process, for a given time, the number of infected
members, i.e. a generation of infected members, is a random variable. In the
first part of this dissertation, given that the mass function of the contagion s
random variable is known, four methodologies to find the mass function of the
generations of the stochastic process are compared. The methodologies are:
probability generating functions with and without polynomial identities, Markov chain and Monte Carlo simulations. The first and the third methodologies
provide analytical expressions relating the contagion random variable and the
generation s size random variable. These analytical expressions are used in the
second part of this dissertation, where a classical inverse problem of bayesian
parametric inference is studied. With the help of Bayes rule, parameters of
the contagion random variable are inferred from realizations of the stochastic
process. The analytical expressions obtained in the first part of the work are
used to build appropriate likelihood functions. In order to solve the inverse
problem, two different ways of using data from the Bienaymé-Galton-Watson
process are developed and compared: when data are realizations of a single
generation of the branching process and when data is just one realization of
the branching process observed over a certain number of generations. The criteria used in this work to stop the update process in the bayesian parametric
inference uses the L2-Wasserstein distance, which is a metric based on optimal
mass transference. All numerical and symbolical routines developed to this
work are written in MATLAB.
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