Título: | ESSAYS IN INFRASTRUCTURE ECONOMICS | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
NAIELLY LOPES MARQUES |
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Colaborador(es): |
LUIZ EDUARDO TEIXEIRA BRANDAO - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 27/JUN/2023 | Língua(s): | ENGLISH - UNITED STATES |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=63040&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=63040&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.63040 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
After a careful review of academic works that apply the real options approach
to the evaluation of infrastructure concession projects and identifying the main gaps
in this literature, we developed this Thesis, composed of four independent studies.
The first explains the binomial model and shows how to incorporate the project
cash flows using the cash flow dividend rate to create the project value lattice. We
develop a R code, provide a tutorial on how to use this model and show how the
code can be customized for particular applications. The second shows why
additional investments in expansion as firm obligations in concession contracts are
suboptimal and proposes a real options model that combines flexible capacity
expansion decisions with conditional term extensions. Using a typical toll road
project in Brazil, we show how this kind of flexibility can be useful for policy
development to attract private investment in public infrastructure projects. The third
evaluates the concession of a Light Rail Vehicle in Brazil. We adopt the real options
approach to model the different flexible clauses embedded in this contract and
analyze whether they conflict with each other and how they impact the overall
project evaluation. Finally, the fourth uses Unit Root, Variance Ratio tests, and the
Parameter Approach Measure to evaluate the most appropriate stochastic process
to model the uncertainty of passenger demand in airport concessions in Brazil. We
analyze samples ex-ante and ex-post covid-19 and show that both seasonality and
the pandemic significantly impact the stochastic diffusion model.
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