Título: | FISCAL RISK IN AN EMERGING OPEN ECONOMY: THE BRAZILIAN CASE | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
MARINA PERRUPATO MENDONCA |
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Colaborador(es): |
CARLOS VIANA DE CARVALHO - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 29/NOV/2022 | Língua(s): | ENGLISH - UNITED STATES |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=61418&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=61418&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.61418 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
What if the fiscal risk is not negligible? Could the Central Bank continue
effectively bringing inflation to the target when it ignores the default risk? To
address those questions, we propose a small open economy DSGE model with
an endogenous fiscal limit, where the government can default on its domestic
bonds, and monetary authority may account for that. We evaluate dynamics
under two different Central Bank decision rules: when (i) it wrongly tracks that
risk, and (ii) it perfectly tracks default risk. The model is calibrated based on
Brazilian data, as its recent budgetary deterioration makes the country an ideal
case to be studied. We find that high inflation and depreciated currency coexist
with a high interest rate when the monetary authority does not fully account for
the default risk. The higher the default probability, the greater the differences
across the effects of the two types of policy rules that we analyzed. For a central
banker to restore the inflation target, she must fully track default risk in its
decision rule. In addition, our model generates an endogenous premium across
countries’ interest rates due to differences in sovereign default risk.
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