Título: | ANALYSIS OF THE FORECAST ERRORS IMPACT IN THE PROCESS OF PRODUCTION PLANNING IN AN OIL COMPANY | |||||||
Autor: |
CASSIA DANIELE DOS SANTOS SILVA |
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Colaborador(es): |
CARLOS PATRICIO SAMANEZ - Orientador FABIANO MEZADRE POMPERMAYER - Coorientador |
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Catalogação: | 21/FEV/2013 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | |||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=21199&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=21199&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.21199 | |||||||
Resumo: | ||||||||
The need for integration between the various components of the supply
chain and the SEOP (Sales and Operations Planning) are concepts widely known
by the companies, however it is often difficult to align theoretical concepts to the
real needs and processes of companies. The focus of this work is the operational
planning of the logistics supply chain of petroleum and derivatives of an oil
company. The company uses a deterministic linear programming model for
development of the plan. The parameters´ deviations between real and planning
data, which influence the plan, as international prices, volume of oil production,
demand for some oil derivatives and availability of refinery units were monitored.
After analyzing of these deviations, we used the linear programming model of the
company to develop a range of sensitivities, feeding back the model, using the
mean errors of the variables. Finally the information of real x plan x modified plan
(planned sensitivity) with uncertainty are grouped. The results show that the
modified plan considering the uncertainty of the variables through the historical
average errors enables a more robust planning, where the result is no longer a
deterministic optimal value and it presents itself as a good range of values.
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