Título: | DECISION OF SEASONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO OPTIMIZE PORTFOLIO OF CONTRACTS WITH HYDROELECTRICS AND WIND FARMS IN BRAZIL | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Autor: |
FELIPE DA ROCHA LIMA |
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Colaborador(es): |
LEONARDO LIMA GOMES - Orientador MARTA CORREA DALBEM - Coorientador |
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Catalogação: | 13/SET/2012 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=20354&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=20354&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.20354 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The seasonal adjustment is the process of dividing the annual quantities of an electricity supply contract in monthly amounts. This is a contractual flexibility generally determined or imposed by the contract buyer. The share of wind farms in the Brazilian energy system has increased in the last few years and wind energy
is a renewable source that presents an interesting feature of complementarity with hydroelectric power plants in Brazil. Therefore, contracts with wind farms and hydroelectric plants are becoming part of the trading companies portfolios. Aiming to reach higher gains, some energy traders enter into uncovered trading positions and use the flexibility of seasonal adjustments of contracts to combine these two sources in a portfolio. This study used as reference a trading company that has a portfolio composed of a sales contract for a fixed monthly amount of energy, a contract to buy electricity from a wind farm and a contract to purchase electricity from a hydroelectric plant that can be seasonally adjusted. A methodology is proposed to find the ideal profile of seasonal adjustments that should be used to increase the portfolio’s profits. The maximization of the Omega measure delta - along with Value at Risk (VaR) restrictions- , was the metric used to analyze the scenarios and choose the optimal portfolio. The results found show
that the maximization of the Delta measure is obtained by concentrating all the energy bought from the hydroelectric in the second semester of the year. However, as the constraint VaR becomes more severe restricting the freedom to make seasonal adjustments, the distribution of energy amounts between the
months of the year approaches the uniformity.
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