Título: | MODELLING A STOCHASTIC PROCESS FOR THE BRAZILIAN SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATE | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Autor: |
JOSE CARLOS NOGUEIRA CAVALCANTE FILHO |
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Colaborador(es): |
LUCIANO VEREDA OLIVEIRA - Orientador EDSON DANIEL LOPES GONCALVES - Coorientador |
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Catalogação: | 13/SET/2010 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=16273&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=16273&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.16273 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The main goal of the present work is to capture the informational effect in
the Brazilian short-term interest rate (Selic rate) using Poisson jumps. This
structure is sustained by tests realized by Johannes (2004) and Das (2002), which
provide strong evidence of this kind of modeling for FOMC3 announcements. In
the above-mentioned articles, the authors show that a big part of the short-term
volatility observed in fixed income markets is captured with the introduction of
jumps in the stochastic process of the interest rate. The fixed income markets in
Brazil, despite of the progressive investment profile changes (in direction of
longer maturities), remains highly oriented for short term government bonds, like
LTN’s. There are, nevertheless, few academic works estimating the informational
effects in the Brazilian short-term interest rate, such as Margueron (2006) and
with simplified approaches for this issue4. The capture of the informational effect
with stochastic processes might generate improvements not only in understanding
the effect per se, but also in explaining the abrupt movements in shorter maturities
of the yield curve. As affine models for the yield curve, they are based in the idea
of the whole curve as a function of the short-term interest rate, so it is possible to
extend this approach, improving the yield curve modeling as a whole. Formalizing
this structure potentially generates advances in pricing fixed income instruments
and risk management.
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