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ETDs @PUC-Rio
Estatística
Título: REAL OPTIONS THEORY APPLIED TO NITROGENOUS FERTILIZER PLANT CONSIDERING THE FLEXIBILITY IN ENERGY SUPPLY
Autor: PATRICIA SOARES DE ANDRADE CALDAS
Colaborador(es): LUIZ EDUARDO TEIXEIRA BRANDAO - Orientador
Catalogação: 01/OUT/2014 Língua(s): PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL
Tipo: TEXT Subtipo: THESIS
Notas: [pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio.
[en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio.
Referência(s): [pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=23519&idi=1
[en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=23519&idi=2
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.23519
Resumo:
This study was motivated by the uncertainties related to the natural gas supply in Brazil in the coming years due to possible delays in the Pre-Salt projects. To mitigate the risk of natural gas production falling short of planned for the coming years, Petrobras has been expanding the alternatives for the natural gas supply by building regasification of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminals. Within this scenario is analyzed the feasibility of building a gas chemical complex to produce nitrogenous fertilizer and other chemicals, considering that the plant has the option to complement the plentiful supply of the complex by importing LNG in periods that the natural gas supply is insufficient to meet the total consumption of this plant. The triangular distribution and stochastic mean reversion is used to model uncertainties regarding supply and price variables, respectively, and Monte Carlo simulation for pricing the option to switch inputs. The results indicate that the choice of LNG as a supply of full complementation of he complex increases the value of the project, proving that this is a viable and economically attractive alternative.
Descrição: Arquivo:   
COVER, ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS, RESUMO, ABSTRACT, SUMMARY AND LISTS PDF    
CHAPTER 1 PDF    
CHAPTER 2 PDF    
CHAPTER 3 PDF    
CHAPTER 4 PDF    
CHAPTER 5 PDF    
CHAPTER 6 PDF    
CHAPTER 7 PDF    
REFERENCES, APPENDICE PDF