Título: | AN APPLICATION OF REAL OPTIONS THEORY TO THE VALUATION OF A HYDROELECTRIC POWER PLANT | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Autor: |
ANDRE LUIZ DE SOUZA PORTUGAL |
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Colaborador(es): |
LUIZ EDUARDO TEIXEIRA BRANDAO - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 04/MAR/2008 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=11406&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=11406&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.11406 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The significant hydric potential available in Brazil has
been attracting
investments in this business area. On the other hand,
traditional valuation methods
such as Discount Cash Flow (DCF) do not incorporate the
value of the options
investors possess when managing their capital investment
decisions and as a result,
the value of these assets may be undervaluated. In this
dissertation, we use the Real
Options Approach to analyze the financial feasibility of a
hydroelectric power plant
project that can expand its generation capacity throughout
its concession life. We
consider uncertainties such as the spot price of energy,
the water flow in the
construction region of the project, the energy generation
loss factor, macroeconomic
parameters such as the TJLP interest rate and the IGP-M
inflation rate, and also the
possibility that the capital investment decision be
postponed. Considering that the
spot price of energy follows a long-term mean reversion
process, the value of the
flexibilities analyzed is not significant. Nevertheless, a
sensitivity analysis of the
volatility and investment required for an expansion
parameters shows that the
value of this project increases from R$ 1.449 millions to
approximately R$ 1.650
millions. Given the high level of uncertainty regarding
the future supply of energy in
Brazil, we concluded that the Real Options Approach offers
a better valuation of a
flexible investment project given the uncertainty
concerning the parameters used in
the model.
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