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Título: CHOICE OF A FORECASTING DEMAND MODEL FOR NEWSPAPERS AT NEWSTANDS POINTS
Instituição: PONTIFÃCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO - PUC-RIO
Autor(es): NILTON FERNANDES DE SOUZA JUNIOR
Colaborador(es): NELIO DOMINGUES PIZZOLATO - Orientador
GUTEMBERG HESPANHA BRASIL - Coorientador
Data da catalogação: 25 11:10:20.000000/07/2001
Tipo: THESIS Idioma(s): PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL
Referência [pt]: https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/DEI/serieConsulta.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=1751@1
Referência [en]: https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/DEI/serieConsulta.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=1751@2
Referência [es]: https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/DEI/serieConsulta.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=1751@4
Referência DOI: https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.1751

Resumo:
This report has analyzed the issue of distributing the newspaper A Gazeta to sales stands. As a first step, a research was done on circulation within the areas of Distribution Systems and Demanding Forecast Methods. Besides, a study on logistic grounds was carried out about the current system of distribution and demanding forecast by S/A A Gazeta, which produces the newspaper subject of this study. Through the analysis of a series on historical data of the newspaper net sales at a specific sale stand, a pattern was developed, which enables a more precise forecast of the newspaper daily demands at these stand. Series Temporais by Box & Jenkins applied to the software SPSS, version 8.0, was used to determine the desired pattern. Some patterns were found which match to the solution of the problem. Then, an analysis on the result of the two best patterns was made. Since the pattern was agreed to be the ideal one, an ARIMA (1,0,1) (1,1,1)7, it will be possible to improve the newspaper distribution process to the sales stands,lessening the amount of stuck newspapers at each stand, as well as, to meet the demands due to a more precise distribution to the sales stands in terms of quantity.
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