This report has analyzed the issue of distributing the
newspaper A Gazeta to sales stands. As a first step, a
research was done on circulation within the areas of
Distribution Systems and Demanding Forecast Methods.
Besides, a study on logistic grounds was carried out about
the current system of distribution and demanding forecast
by S/A A Gazeta, which produces the newspaper subject of
this study. Through the analysis of a series on historical
data of the newspaper net sales at a specific sale stand, a
pattern was developed, which enables a more precise
forecast of the newspaper daily demands at these stand.
Series Temporais by Box & Jenkins applied to the software
SPSS, version 8.0, was used to determine the desired
pattern.
Some patterns were found which match to the solution of the
problem. Then, an analysis on the result of the two best
patterns was made. Since the pattern was agreed to be the
ideal one, an ARIMA (1,0,1) (1,1,1)7, it will be possible
to improve the newspaper distribution process to the sales
stands,lessening the amount of stuck newspapers at each
stand, as well as, to meet the demands due to a more
precise distribution to the sales stands in terms of
quantity.
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