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Título: APPLICATION OF THE ALTMAN MODEL IN THE SOLVENCY ANALYSIS OF 40 BRAZILIAN COMPANIES
Autor(es): FELIPE ESPINOSA SANTOS
RODRIGO BARBOSA DE ARRUDA COELHO
Colaborador(es): RENATO DE VIVEIROS LIMA - Orientador
Catalogação: 07/AGO/2025 Língua(s): PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL
Tipo: TEXT Subtipo: SENIOR PROJECT
Notas: [pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio.
[en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio.
Referência(s): [pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/TFCs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=72227@1
[en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/TFCs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=72227@2
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.72227
Resumo:
This undergraduate thesis analyzes the applicability and limitations of the Altman Z-Score model as a tool for corporate credit risk assessment in the Brazilian context. Given the often-qualitative nature of credit analysis, which contrasts with established quantitative models in equity analysis, this study applied the three main versions of the Altman model to a sample of 40 large, publicly traded companies listed on the B3, based on their 2024 financial statements. The results indicated a significant variation in scores among the companies, with the model correctly identifying firms in notorious financial distress. However, a strong discrepancy was observed between the Z-scores and the credit ratings assigned by risk rating agencies, especially for high-reputation firms. The study s conclusion reinforces that, although the Z-Score is a powerful quantitative tool for an initial diagnosis and as an early warning system for insolvency in the short term, it does not replace the complexity of credit analysis. Qualitative factors - such as governance, strategic positioning, the regulatory environment, and shareholder support - are decisive for risk assessment and are not captured by the formula, thus explaining the divergence found. The work, therefore, reiterates the hybrid nature of credit analysis, which demands an indispensable combination of quantitative rigor and qualitative judgment.
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