TRABALHOS DE FIM DE CURSO @PUC-Rio
| Título: | VALUATION OF A BRAZILIAN AIRLINE USING THE MONTE CARLO APPROACH: EVIDENCE FROM THE AZUL CASE | ||||||||||||
| Autor(es): |
ESTHER LUISA SZENBERG |
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| Colaborador(es): |
CARLOS DE LAMARE BASTIAN PINTO - Orientador |
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| Catalogação: | 17/JUL/2025 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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| Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | SENIOR PROJECT | ||||||||||
| Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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| Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/TFCs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=71671@1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/TFCs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=71671@2 |
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| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.71671 | ||||||||||||
| Resumo: | |||||||||||||
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This study estimates the economic value of Azul Linhas Aéreas Brasileiras
(AZUL4) based on a classic valuation based on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF),
complemented by sensitivity analyzes and Monte Carlo simulations. The
projections consider assumptions aligned with the Brazilian aviation market, with a
reference WACC of 15.2 (percentage) p.a. and long-term growth rate (g) between 1.5 (percentage) and
3.5 (percentage). In the simulations, the probability of net equity becoming positive is only 1 (percentage), reflecting negative accounting equity and the high cost of capital. It is
concluded that Azul needs to strengthen its capital structure, via capitalization
or debt reduction, to reduce WACC and make new investments viable, at the risk of further deterioration in shareholder value.
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