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Estatística
Título: EVALUATION OF CONSEQUENCE CALCULATION MODELS FOR RISK ANALYSIS IN PIPELINES
Autor(es): JULIANA MELLO DA SILVA
Colaborador(es): RENATO BICHARA VIEIRA - Orientador
CLAUDIO VELOSO BARRETO - Coorientador
Catalogação: 10/JAN/2025 Língua(s): PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL
Tipo: TEXT Subtipo: SENIOR PROJECT
Notas: [pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio.
[en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio.
Referência(s): [pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/TFCs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=69088@1
[en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/TFCs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=69088@2
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.69088
Resumo:
Pipeline transportation, compared to other modes, is the most widely used in the oil & gas industry due to its lower unit cost per transported load, as well as greater safety and environmental protection, given that most of its pipelines are buried. In this context, formal risk management for pipelines becomes an essential part of the oil industry, as pipeline operations are constantly subject to physical and chemical processes that may compromise their integrity. The purpose of this project is to evaluate consequence calculation models for quantitative risk analyses in transport pipelines, considering different failure scenarios in an oil pipeline that could result in a fire and, consequently, cause fatalities. Thus, before determining the total pipeline quantitative risk in R$/(km.year), it is necessary to estimate the social damages to be added to the other consequences considered in risk assessments. When analyzing the consequences of failure, the categorization of the hole size (or defect size) will be decisive for the type of failure: (i) a small hole with an opening of approximately 5% of the pipeline diameter, (ii) a puncture with an opening of approximately 20% of the pipeline diameter, and (iii) a full pipeline rupture. Among the analyzed topics in each scenario, one key aspect is the calculation of the total spilled volume in oil pipelines, which is estimated as the sum of two components: (a) the volume spilled during operation until the leak is detected and pumping is stopped, and (b) the volume spilled associated with the pipeline’s hydraulic profile and valve positioning, also known as the maximum gravitational spill volume. For each scenario, the radiation boundary radius resulting from the levels of loss of containment (pinhole, hole, and rupture) and their respective radiation doses will be evaluated, considering the potential ignition of the leaked product. Consequently, the social impact associated with the probabilities of fatalities as a function of thermal exposure will be assessed.
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