Título: | EVALUATION OF CONSEQUENCE CALCULATION MODELS FOR RISK ANALYSIS IN PIPELINES | ||||||||||||
Autor(es): |
JULIANA MELLO DA SILVA |
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Colaborador(es): |
RENATO BICHARA VIEIRA - Orientador CLAUDIO VELOSO BARRETO - Coorientador |
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Catalogação: | 10/JAN/2025 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | SENIOR PROJECT | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/TFCs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=69088@1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/TFCs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=69088@2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.69088 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
Pipeline transportation, compared to other modes, is the most widely
used in the oil & gas industry due to its lower unit cost per transported load,
as well as greater safety and environmental protection, given that most of its
pipelines are buried. In this context, formal risk management for pipelines
becomes an essential part of the oil industry, as pipeline operations are
constantly subject to physical and chemical processes that may compromise
their integrity.
The purpose of this project is to evaluate consequence calculation models
for quantitative risk analyses in transport pipelines, considering different
failure scenarios in an oil pipeline that could result in a fire and, consequently,
cause fatalities. Thus, before determining the total pipeline quantitative risk
in R$/(km.year), it is necessary to estimate the social damages to be added to
the other consequences considered in risk assessments. When analyzing the
consequences of failure, the categorization of the hole size (or defect size)
will be decisive for the type of failure: (i) a small hole with an opening of
approximately 5% of the pipeline diameter, (ii) a puncture with an opening of
approximately 20% of the pipeline diameter, and (iii) a full pipeline rupture.
Among the analyzed topics in each scenario, one key aspect is the calculation
of the total spilled volume in oil pipelines, which is estimated as the sum
of two components: (a) the volume spilled during operation until the leak
is detected and pumping is stopped, and (b) the volume spilled associated
with the pipeline’s hydraulic profile and valve positioning, also known as the
maximum gravitational spill volume. For each scenario, the radiation boundary
radius resulting from the levels of loss of containment (pinhole, hole, and
rupture) and their respective radiation doses will be evaluated, considering
the potential ignition of the leaked product. Consequently, the social impact
associated with the probabilities of fatalities as a function of thermal exposure
will be assessed.
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