Título: | NON-GAUSSIAN SCORE DRIVEN MODELS FOR TIME SERIES WITH NON-LINEAR COMBINATION OF TREND AND SEASONALITY COMPONENTS | ||||||||||||
Autor(es): |
MATHEUS CARNEIRO NOGUEIRA |
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Colaborador(es): |
CRISTIANO AUGUSTO COELHO FERNANDES - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 19/MAR/2024 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | SENIOR PROJECT | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/TFCs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=66255@1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/TFCs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=66255@2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.66255 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
A commom technique in time series modeling is to decompose the time
series into it s trend and seasonal components. Inside the Score-Driven Models
class, this decomposition is usually made in an additive form, so that the series
is expressed as the sum of its trend and seasonal components. However, it is
not unusual that, even with the seasonal component being considered into the
model, the residuals still show signs of seasonal dependency that were not
captured by the model. With that said, the main objective of this project is
to study if different non-linear combinations of those components are able to
improve forecast accuracy in score driven models.
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