Título: | E-COMMERCE SALES FORECASTING USING STATISTICAL MODELS AND MACHINE LEARNING METHOD | ||||||||||||
Autor(es): |
JOAO PEDRO JESUS DE ABREU MARTINEZ |
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Colaborador(es): |
CRISTIANO AUGUSTO COELHO FERNANDES - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 19/MAR/2024 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | SENIOR PROJECT | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/TFCs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=66253@1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/TFCs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=66253@2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.66253 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
In this project, the predictive accuracy of statistical models and machine learning
methods applied to five hourly time series of sales quantity from a retail e-commerce was
investigated. The selected models included dynamic regression estimated by ordinary least
squares (OLS), Lasso, and AdaLasso, in addition to the random forest method. Predictive
accuracy was assessed for forecast horizons ranging from 1 to 12 hours ahead, using the
MAE and RMSE metrics. The results indicated that models from the Lasso family exhibited
superior performance according to the MAE metric. Regarding RMSE, the best results were
associated with the dynamic regression model that incorporates autoregressive terms of the
sales quantity and dummy variables (RegrDin(3)). The computational implementation of the
models was carried out using the programming languages Python and R.
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