Título: | FORECASTING U.S. RECESSIONS WITH PROBIT MODELS | ||||||||||||
Autor(es): |
THOMAZ BASTOS FRAGA |
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Colaborador(es): |
DAVI MICHEL VALLADAO - Orientador CRISTIANO AUGUSTO COELHO FERNANDES - Coorientador |
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Catalogação: | 04/MAR/2021 | Língua(s): | ENGLISH - UNITED STATES |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | SENIOR PROJECT | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/TFCs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=51701@1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/TFCs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=51701@2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.51701 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
In this important and highly researched topic that is recession forecasting in the United States, we aim to review previous benchmark works on the econometric literature to draw inspiration and try to add prediction significance using different methods. The most widely used variable, and also the one by far with the most prediction power, is the yield curve. We try to add prediction power to this model with two approaches: using other financial variables and trying different kind of models. We also try to improve the forecasts of previous works with approaches using the Lasso variable selection method and with General Autoregressive Score (GAS) models. These models were able to achieve meaningful prediction power in both short and long time forecast horizons.
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