Título: | ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF PHOTOVOLTAIC SOLAR POWER TIME SERIES THROUGH STATISTICAL MODELS WITH MULTIPLE SEASONALITY | ||||||||||||
Autor(es): |
JOAO PEDRO PIRES REBELO |
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Colaborador(es): |
PAULA MEDINA MACAIRA LOURO - Orientador MARGARETE AFONSO DE SOUSA - Coorientador |
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Catalogação: | 29/JAN/2021 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | SENIOR PROJECT | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/TFCs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=51379@1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/TFCs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=51379@2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.51379 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
The global need for an energetic matrix alternative to fossil fuel is urgent, therefore we
need to rely on alternative energy sources, such as photovoltaic solar energy, that has been
gaining broad relevance and currently stands as one of the industries that grows at highest pace
in the world. Facing the difficulties regarding energy generation through renewable sources,
the modelling and prediction of time series appear as a fundamental tool to reduce uncertainty.
According to this context, this article presents a detailed descriptive analysis for an hourly solar
power time series of a 78MWp photovoltaic power plant located in the Northeast Region of
Brazil, bringing up its main features, where it is possible to highlight the double seasonality.
Subsequently, based on these properties, the predictive capacity of three different statistical
methods for forecasting time series are compared, in which one of them is an exponential
smoothing method for the seasonal adjusted series, the other one uses a combination of Fourier
terms with an exponential smoothing method and, the last one, a dynamic harmonic regression
method. The MASE measure of forecast accuracy is used to evaluate the capacity of the
methods and the exponential smoothing method for the seasonal adjusted series was the one
that obtained better overall performance.
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