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Estatística
Título: PUBLIC CONCESSION OF THE SOUTHERN INTEGRATION HIGHWAY: AN ANALYSIS WITH A VALUATION OF THE PROJECT AND EVALUATION OF REAL OPTIONS
Autor(es): ANTONIO CANDIDO GRABOWSKY FERNANDES BASTO
Colaborador(es): LUIZ EDUARDO TEIXEIRA BRANDAO - Orientador
Catalogação: 24/ABR/2020 Língua(s): PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL
Tipo: TEXT Subtipo: SENIOR PROJECT
Notas: [pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio.
[en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio.
Referência(s): [pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/TFCs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=47649@1
[en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/TFCs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=47649@2
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.47649
Resumo:
This paper analyzes the Concession of the Southern Integration Highway in order to develop a better understanding of the impact that the obligatory investments, a contractual obligation of the concession process, will have on the return on the investment and the valuation of the project at hand. To develop this analysis the traditional discounted cash flow valuation method was used, as well as the Black-Scholes option pricing model, focusing on the implementation of Real Options into the financial model of the operation. The study aimed at developing an option that would put the company in a more flexible position, with regards to the aforementioned contractual obligations, altering the timeline of the investment and assuming that the obligatory investments would only have to begin at the end of year 10 of the 30 year project. The Black-Scholes model is able to accurately price Real Options, which allows the changes in the timeline of the investments to be accurately evaluated in order to find out if the changes proposed have a positive impact on the value of the project. The study revealed that in this case, with the proposed changes, the addition of an option into the model will not make the project s value higher than it is. The results of this paper bring new possibilities for further projections and simulations for a better understanding of the public concession projects.
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