Título: | HOURLY LONG TERM SIMULATION OF ENERGY TIME SERIES | ||||||||||||
Autor(es): |
GUILHERME MEIRELLES BODIN DE MORAES |
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Colaborador(es): |
ALEXANDRE STREET DE AGUIAR - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 14/DEZ/2018 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | SENIOR PROJECT | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/TFCs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=35875@1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/TFCs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=35875@2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.35875 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
In this work, a simulation methodology is proposed to obtain future scenarios of demand in buses of an electric system. This application is useful in the power systems industry for operation planning and system expansion analysis. Quantile auto-regressive models are proposed to model the behavior of the buses. The models rely on the previous creation of scenarios of energy signals that guide the long-term behavior (growth, shrinkage or stagnation) of the load levels in the buses. They count as well with the historical data of the buses to characterize the short-term movements (intra-day and intra-week movements). The proposed methodology was implemented in the Julia language and was applied to real data of the Brazilian electric sector.
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