TRABALHOS DE FIM DE CURSO @PUC-Rio
| Título: | A STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF EL NIÑO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION ON HYDRO POWER GENERATION IN BRAZIL | ||||||||||||
| Autor(es): |
RAPHAEL AUGUSTO PROENCA ROSA SAAVEDRA |
||||||||||||
| Colaborador(es): |
ALEXANDRE STREET DE AGUIAR - Orientador CRISTIANO AUGUSTO COELHO FERNANDES - Coorientador |
||||||||||||
| Catalogação: | 11/DEZ/2017 | Língua(s): | ENGLISH - UNITED STATES |
||||||||||
| Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | SENIOR PROJECT | ||||||||||
| Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
||||||||||||
| Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/TFCs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=32290@1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/TFCs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=32290@2 |
||||||||||||
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.32290 | ||||||||||||
| Resumo: | |||||||||||||
|
Power plants that utilize renewable resources to produce electrical energy, such as hydroelectric power plants, comprehend the majority of the Brazilian energy matrix. However, their generations have underlying uncertainties associated with hydrological factors, such as precipitation. An adequate description of these future uncertainties is necessary for a thorough analysis of the risks that are inherent to the production of hydro power plants. Among these uncertainties, we highlight the possibility that large scale climatic phenomena, specifically the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), might considerably affect hydro power generation. Motivated by this hypothesis, we utilize Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) models in order to estimate the impact of ENSO on the Affluent Natural Energy (ANE), which serves as an indicator of monthly hydro power generation in each one of Brazil s main regions. Based on simulations, our model indicates an up to 11 percent ENSO effect on the ANE, depending on the analyzed Brazilian region.
|
|||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||