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Título: QUANTITATIVE TRADING: HIDDEN MARKOV MODELLING USING R
Autor(es): GUILHERME DE LIMA KINZEL
Colaborador(es): ROBERTO CINTRA MARTINS - Orientador
Catalogação: 29/DEZ/2016 Língua(s): PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL
Tipo: TEXT Subtipo: SENIOR PROJECT
Notas: [pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio.
[en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio.
Referência(s): [pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/TFCs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=28556@1
[en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/TFCs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=28556@2
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.28556
Resumo:
The price of the euro is influenced by innumerable factors, including often unknown characteristics that make prediction based on fundamentals a complex task. An alternative way of trying to predict its movements is through time series models, which studies the historical behavior to infer its future trends. This work demonstrate the possibility of usage of a non-linear time series model, known as Hidden Markov Model (HMM). The model s foundations are shown, a methodology for its use elaborated and the R software to demonstrate the predictive results on the euro’s price – EUR/USD.
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