Título: | ENERGY PRICE SIMULATION IN BRAZIL THROUGH DEMAND SIDE BIDDING | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
JAVIER LINKOLK LOPEZ GONZALES |
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Colaborador(es): |
REINALDO CASTRO SOUZA - Orientador RODRIGO FLORA CALILI - Coorientador |
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Catalogação: | 18/MAI/2016 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=26422&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=26422&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.26422 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
The Energy Efficiency (EE) is considered a synonymous of environmental
preservation, because the energy saved prevents the construction of new
generating plants and transmission lines. The Demand-Side Bidding (DSB) could
represent a very interesting alternative for the revitalization and promotion of EE
practices in Brazil. However, it is important to note that this presupposes a
confidence on the amount of reduced energy, which can only take reality with the
implementation and development of a measurement system and verification
(M&V) the energy consumption. In this context, the main objective is to simulate
of the prices of the demand-side bidding in the regulated environment to meet the
viability in Brazil that could become a reality. The methodology used to perform
the simulations was the Monte Carlo addition, prior to the Kernel method was
used in order to be able to adjust the data to a curve, using polynomials. Once
achieved the best-fitted curve was carried out through an analysis of each scenario
(in different rounds) with each sample (500, 1000, 5000 and 10000) to find the
probability of the price falling between the 110 real range and 140 real (great prices
proposed by the DSB). Finally, the results showed that the probability of staying
in the price range from 110 real nd 140 real data 500 in the sample is 28.20 percent, the
sample 1000 is 33.00 percent, the sample 5000 is 29.96 percent and 10000 is 32.36 percent.
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