Título: | THREE ESSAYS ON ASSET PRICING APPLYING REAL OPTIONS METHODOLOGY | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Autor: |
KATIA MARIA CARLOS ROCHA |
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Colaborador(es): |
JOSE PAULO TEIXEIRA - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 18/MAI/2007 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=9943&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=9943&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.9943 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The dissertation presents three economic essays examining
situations where
the real options approach can be useful in the definition
of regulatory policies,
investment strategies and pricing of sovereign risk. The
first essay considers the new
regulation oriented to interconnection costs of
telecommunications networks and
proposes adjustments in calculating the return on capital
invested in local fixed
telephone service. The proposed model establishes the mark-
up on the weighted
average cost of capital (WACC) to be applied to new
concession contracts, taking into
account the access option provided by the fixed operator
to entrants. The essay
innovates by incorporating to the options model the impact
of changes in
technological paradigms that cause the concessionaire´s
demand to fall. The results
indicate the robustness of the mark-up in relation to
alterations in the model´s basic
parameters (fixed-fixed and fixed-mobile traffic and
negative demand shocks), and
mark-up was estimated to be under 1%. The second essay
analyzes investment
strategies in real estate development, a sector that
involves low liquidity, slow
payback and various economic uncertainties related to
market demand, price per
square meter and land cost. The essay analyzes strategies
for simultaneous and
sequential launch of real estate projects. The first
involves lower construction cost, but
comes associated with more uncertain results. Sequential
launch presents
characteristics similar to real options because it has a
series of built-in opportunities
regarding the acquisition of information and delay or
abandonment of the project. We
present a case study of a development in the city of Rio
de Janeiro, identifying the
optimal strategy and the maximum land cost. Sequential
launch aggregates 10% extra
value to the undertaking, besides reducing the developer´s
risk exposure by over half
in comparison with the traditional discounted cash flow
method. Finally, the third
essay examines sovereign risk and proposes a model from
the theory of options and
contingent assets to analyze the term structure of four
emerging countries (Brazil,
Mexico, Russia and Turkey) that together represented on
average 54% of JPMorgan´s
EMBIG index in the 2000-2005 period. The real exchange
rate, modeled as a simple
diffusion process, is considered as indicative of default.
The calibrated model
indicates that in the period studied, the market
systematically underpriced Brazilian
bonds by an average of 100 basis points, while for Mexico,
Russia and Turkey it fairly priced the sovereign debt. The
essay also provides the implicit probability of the
issuer´s default, a fundamental variable for pricing
credit derivatives, a market that has
grown at a dizzying pace since the Asian and Russian
crises, rising from US$ 180
billion in 1996 to an expected value of US$ 20 trillion at
the end of 2006. This market
is recognized as being responsible for containing the
contagious effects and
maintaining the stability of the financial market in
recent crises, such as the corporate
meltdowns of WorldCom, Parmalat and Enron, among others.
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