Título: | EXTENDING THE CYCLICAL COMPONENT IN THE STRUCTURAL MODEL FORMULATION | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
KLAUS LEITE PINTO VASCONCELOS |
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Colaborador(es): |
REINALDO CASTRO SOUZA - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 02/MAI/2007 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=9845&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=9845&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.9845 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
The Structural Models, recently suggested by Harvey, uses
the classic idea of modelling a time series y its non
observed components. The cyclical component of the series,
which is defined by a smoothed sine, is a special one that
may be used for explaining a repetitive behaviour along
the series. The motivation for using this component lies
in the finite valued peak presnted by its theoretic
spectrum. Harvey´s model stays that the cycle of the
series is defined by a single smoothed sine. However, the
estimated spectrum of certain series showed that it is
reasonable to suppose the cyclical component of those
series as being a sum of distinct smoothed sines of
different frequencies. This thesis proposses an extension
of the cyclical component in Harvey´s model and discusses
the equivalent ARIMA structure for this extended
component. We develop a Lagrange Multipliers test in the
frequence domain for verifying the existence of an extra
frequence in the cyclical component. The theory presented
in the dissertation is applied with the purpose of testing
the presence of a second frequence in the cycle of the
series of sunspot numbers and in the series of rainfall in
Fotaleza.
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