Título: | BROWN S ADAPTIVE CONTROL EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD INCLUDING SEASONAL COMPONENT | |||||||
Autor: |
EUGENIO KAHN EPPRECHT |
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Colaborador(es): |
REINALDO CASTRO SOUZA - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 03/JAN/2007 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | |||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=9430&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=9430&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.9430 | |||||||
Resumo: | ||||||||
The methods of Brown and Winters are, undoubtedly, the
most popular exponential smoothing techniques used
nowadays. However, both methods have limitations, such as:
Brown s method is applicable only to non-seasonal series
and Winters use the linear structure as the only possible
model for the trend.
A generalization of the smoothing methods in which the
limitations cited above are eliminated is presented here.
In particular, through a unique analytical formulation,
the trend model (constant, linear or quadratic) is linked
to the seasonal factors (additive or multiplicative). A
forecast error variance estimator is provided and the
adaptive control of the non-seasonal part smoothing
constant is proposed. A computer program was written for
automatic implementation of the method. This program also
performs initial values estimation for the process
initialization. Some series were generated and processed
for testing the method performance. Several suggestions
are given for future research which may yield, upon
further analysis, to method improvement.
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