Título: | ASSESSING UNDISCOVERED OIL AND GAS RESOURCES: METHODOLOGY AND ELICITATION OF SUBJECTIVE INFORMATION | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Autor: |
BRUNO RAFAEL DIAS DE LUCENA |
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Colaborador(es): |
LEONARDO JUNQUEIRA LUSTOSA - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 30/OUT/2006 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=9219&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=9219&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.9219 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The evaluation of not discovered oil and gas resources,
that uses solely
information obtained from indirect tests such as
seismography, is the base for the
decisions on the drilling exploration wells. The
information available in this phase
that precedes the drilling of wells is vague and very
uncertain. On the other hand,
the careful economic evaluation of the prospects in this
phase is very important
for the decisions concerning the following phases, mainly
on because of the high
cost of the drilling of wells that occur. Therefore, the
application of statistical
methods for reducing the uncertainties and biases in the
evaluation of
undiscovered resources is quite important for the oil
companies. The calculation
of the recoverable volume of hydro-carbons (the basis for
economic evaluation)
depends on assessments made by experts, and for
representing the uncertainties;
the data must be probabilistically distributed. The
objective of this thesis is to
review the formal methodologies and techniques for
probabilistic evaluation of
undiscovered resources founded in literature, having
always in mind the practical
aspects of implementation. The description of these
methodologies range from the
definition of the structure and organization necessary to
manage the work of the
experts, the elicitation of distributions of subjective
probabilities and the
combination of these distributions, until techniques for
verification of evaluations
consistency and reduction of biases. Some considerations
are made about the
main distributions of probability used for representing
the uncertainties in
evaluations of geologic factors. Each methodology and
technique is illustrated and
discussed. An electronic spread sheet was developed to
illustrate the presented
methods and as a prototype of computer aid for the
probabilistic evaluation of
geologic factors.
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