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ETDs @PUC-Rio
Título: ANALYSIS OF THE CYCLICAL AND SEASONAL COMPONENTS IN STRUCTURAL MODELS
Autor: SILVIA MAZELIAH DA CUNHA
Colaborador(es): CRISTIANO AUGUSTO COELHO FERNANDES - Orientador
REINALDO CASTRO SOUZA - Orientador
Catalogação: 24/JUL/2006 Língua(s): PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL
Tipo: TEXT Subtipo: THESIS
Notas: [pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio.
[en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio.
Referência(s): [pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=8728&idi=1
[en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=8728&idi=2
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.8728
Resumo:
The thesis has two main objectives. The first one is to investigate the effects of the application of the Hodrick- Prescott filter (HP) in detecting macro-economic cycles in the brazilian GDP series, from 1900 to 1992, We compare the results from the HP method to those of Cribari and the structural approach of Harvey. We conclude that the HP series may generate spurious cycles. The second objective of this thesis is to compare the estimatives of the seasonal component obtained by fitting the structural model of Harvey with those obtained by X-11 ARIMA method for seasonal adjustment. In comparing the two approaches we use artificial generated series with seasonality.
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