Título: | HIGH FREQUENCY DATA AND PRICE-MAKING PROCESS ANALYSIS: THE EXPONENTIAL MULTIVARIATE AUTOREGRESSIVE CONDITIONAL MODEL - EMACM | |||||||
Autor: |
GUSTAVO SANTOS RAPOSO |
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Colaborador(es): |
ALVARO DE LIMA VEIGA FILHO - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 04/JUL/2006 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | |||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=8620&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=8620&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.8620 | |||||||
Resumo: | ||||||||
The availability of high frequency financial transaction
data - price,
spread, volume and duration -has contributed to the
growing number of scientific
articles on this topic. The first proposals were limited to
pure duration models.
Later, the impact of duration over instantaneous volatility
was analyzed. More
recently, Manganelli (2002) included volume into a vector
model. In this
document, we extended his work by including the bid-ask
spread into the analysis
through a vector autoregressive model. The conditional
means of spread, volume
and duration along with the volatility of returns evolve
through transaction events
based on an exponential formulation we called Exponential
Multivariate
Autoregressive Conditional Model (EMACM). In our proposal,
there are no
constraints on the parameters of the VAR model. This
facilitates the maximum
likelihood estimation of the model and allows the use of
simple likelihood ratio
hypothesis tests to specify the model and obtain some clues
about the
interdependency structure of the variables. In parallel,
the problem of stock price
forecasting is faced through an integrated approach in
which, besides the
modeling of high frequency financial data, a contemporary
ordered probit model
is used. Here, EMACM captures the dynamic that high
frequency variables
present, and its forecasting function is taken as a proxy
to the contemporaneous
information necessary to the pricing model.
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