Título: | INTEGRATED ESTIMATE-AND-OPTIMIZE DECISION TREES LEARNING FOR TWO-STAGE LINEAR DECISION-MAKING PROBLEMS | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
RAFAELA MOREIRA DE AZEVEDO RIBEIRO |
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Colaborador(es): |
BRUNO FANZERES DOS SANTOS - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 10/JUL/2025 | Língua(s): | ENGLISH - UNITED STATES |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=71509&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=71509&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.71509 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
Several decision-making under uncertainty problems found in industry
and studied by the scientific community can be framed as a two-stage stochastic
program. In the past decades, the standard framework to address this class of
mathematical programming problems followed a sequential two-step process,
usually referred to as estimate-then-optimize. Firstly, a predictive distribution
of the uncertain parameters is estimated, based on some machine/statistical
learning (M/SL) method. Then, a decision is prescribed by solving a surrogate
of the two-stage stochastic program using the estimated distribution. In
this context, most M/SL methods typically focus only on minimizing the
prediction error of the uncertain parameters, not accounting for its impact
on the underlying decision problem. However, practitioners argue that their
main interest is to obtain near-optimal solutions from the available data with
minimum decision error rather than a least-error prediction. Therefore, in this
work, we discuss a new framework for integrating prediction and prescription
into the predictive distribution estimation process to be subsequently used
to devise a decision to be implemented. We particularly focus on decision
trees and study decision-making problems representable as two-stage linear
programs. Firstly, we propose a workable framework to account for the
impact of the decision-making problem dynamics on the predictive distribution
estimation process. A non-convex mathematical programming problem is
formulated to characterize the integrated prediction- and prescription-oriented
estimation problem. Then, through a set of reformulation procedures, we
recast the non-convex mathematical program as a Mixed-Integer Programming
(MIP) problem. Acknowledging the difficulty of the MIP reformulation to
scale to mid- and large-scale instances, we devise a computationally efficient
recursive-partitioning heuristic strategy for the integrated prediction- and
prescription-oriented estimation problem leveraging the structure intrinsic to
decision trees. A key feature of the proposed decision-making framework is its
instant decision assessment capability. When a new context arises, generating
a prescription reduces to identifying the corresponding leaf it falls into and
retrieving the precomputed solution of the associated two-stage problem.
This enables fast, direct prescriptions without the need for a time-consuming
optimization step. A set of numerical experiments is conducted to illustrate
the capability and effectiveness of the proposed framework using three distinct
two-stage decision-making problems. We benchmark the proposed approach
against prescriptions devised by various alternative frameworks. We consider
five predict/estimate-then-optimize benchmarks that rely on commonly used
predictive and distribution estimation methods found in the literature and
three benchmarks based on integrated predict-and-optimize decision-making
processes, discussing the benchmark s solution quality and the computational
capability of the MIP reformulation.
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