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Estatística
Título: EVALUATION OF ROADSIDE CHARGING STATIONS IN BRAZIL: AN ECONOMICFINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS USING STOCHASTIC NPV
Autor: LEONARDO POUBEL GLEICH
Colaborador(es): CARLOS DE LAMARE BASTIAN PINTO - Orientador
Catalogação: 14/MAI/2025 Língua(s): PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL
Tipo: TEXT Subtipo: THESIS
Notas: [pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio.
[en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio.
Referência(s): [pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=70443&idi=1
[en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=70443&idi=2
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.70443
Resumo:
Several aspects highlight the emergence of electromobility and the progressive replacement of combustion-powered vehicles with electric ones. A key factor in the proliferation of these vehicles is the availability of charging stations, especially along highways. Given this scenario, it becomes relevant to discuss the assessment of charging station ventures in Brazil and how to model revenue expectations considering possible future scenarios. This study evaluates the economic and financial feasibility of installing highway charging stations, considering the peculiarities and future perspectives of the Brazilian market. Two approaches are proposed: the calculation of the Net Present Value (NPV), estimated based on expected cash flows, and the Stochastic NPV (NPV-E), obtained through stochastic simulations of future cash flows. To demonstrate this methodology, a hypothetical case study is presented on the implementation of a charging station along the BR-116 highway, which connects the state of Rio de Janeiro to São Paulo. The results identify critical factors that impact investment feasibility, providing insights into strategic decision-making in the expansion of electric mobility. The study contributes to literature by exploring the application of probabilistic methods in infrastructure planning within uncertain and developing markets. The research shows that the installation of the charging station presents an NPV of 232,163.28 reais, while the median NPV-E is 224,571.95 reais, highlighting a reduction in expected returns when previously ignored uncertainties are considered, with a 15.91 per cent probability that the NPV-E will be less than or equal to zero.
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