Título: | SARIMAX.JL: OPEN-SOURCE TIME SERIES MODELING IN JULIA THROUGH ADVANCED OPTIMIZATION | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
LUIZ FERNANDO CUNHA DUARTE |
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Colaborador(es): |
DAVI MICHEL VALLADAO - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 04/NOV/2024 | Língua(s): | ENGLISH - UNITED STATES |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=68558&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=68558&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.68558 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
This dissertation introduces SARIMAX.jl, a Julia package designed for
time series estimation. The primary contribution of this work is the separation of model formulation from the estimation process, which allows for the
selection of the most appropriate estimation method for each specific situation.
SARIMAX.jl employs advanced optimization techniques to enhance stability,
robustness, and accuracy in modeling SARIMA processes. The package also
offers flexibility by allowing users to incorporate regularization and switch objective functions. Through a comparative study, SARIMAX.jl demonstrates
superior performance across various in-sample metrics and competitive performance when compared to the R forecast package in the M4 competition
monthly series, establishing it as a reliable open-source option for time series modeling. Additionally, this dissertation proposes a mixed-integer optimization approach for the specification and estimation of a specific subset of
SARIMA models, known as seasonal autoregressive integrated (SARI) models.
This approach guarantees global optimality in parameter estimation and the
specification of the integration order and autoregressive part.
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