Título: | NATURAL GAS DEMAND FORECAST: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES MODELS FOR DAILY AND WEEKLY NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION DATA IN BRAZIL | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
REBECA DA SILVA OLIVEIRA FARIAS |
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Colaborador(es): |
FERNANDO LUIZ CYRINO OLIVEIRA - Orientador ANTONIO MARCIO TAVARES THOME - Coorientador |
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Catalogação: | 26/AGO/2024 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=67730&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=67730&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.67730 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
The Brazilian energy sector has undergone significant transformations,
highlighting the crucial role of natural gas in ensuring energy security in the face of
the transition to sources less dependent on fossil fuels. Forecasting natural gas
demand is essential for efficient management of the sector. While the literature has
focused on forecasting electricity demand, there is a gap in studies on modeling and
forecasting natural gas demand, especially in industrial and medium/long-term
contexts. The need for more accurate and comprehensive models to forecast natural
gas demand is evident from the analysis of existing studies. Therefore, the objective
of this work is to address a comparative analysis of natural gas demand forecasting,
using models suggested in recent time series literature, with application in the R
software, for daily and weekly natural gas consumption data, obtained of the
Natural Gas Movement Reports in Transport Gas Pipelines, released monthly by
the National Agency for Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels, in the period from
2021 to 2023. The models provide forecasts for a test sample of thirty days in the
future for daily and four weeks for weekly data and an out-of-sample comparative
analysis is performed based on performance metrics to identify the most suitable
model for the data series. At the end of the study, the forecast models using neural
networks and tbats (Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, trend and
trigonometric seasonal components) were those that demonstrated the best
performance for daily data, while the decomposition method with autoregressive
modeling and seasonal adjustment (stlar) and the seasonal naive method were the
ones which showed better performance for time series on a weekly basis.
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