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Estatística
Título: COMMERCIALIZATION OF SOLAR ENERGY GENERATION SWAPS IN BRAZIL: THE DUCK CURVE EFFECT
Autor: SERGIO CEZAR DE AZEVEDO JUNIOR
Colaborador(es): MARCOS COHEN - Orientador
Catalogação: 26/ABR/2023 Língua(s): PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL
Tipo: TEXT Subtipo: THESIS
Notas: [pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio.
[en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio.
Referência(s): [pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=62396&idi=1
[en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=62396&idi=2
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.62396
Resumo:
This thesis analyzes the potential formation of the duck curve phenomena on the hourly energy prices in Brazil. Such occurs by the massive introduction of solar generation into the energy matrix and produces a reduction in energy prices during the daytime hours where energy production is abundant and a steep increase in prices in the evening which lacks solar energy source and peaks on load demand. This effect has produced high costs for electrical system operators in several international markets such as California, Australia, Germany and, mainly, reduced the profitability of solar generation plants that produce energy at low price period and need to buy energy at high price hours. This study used more than fifty articles and literatures in addition to thoroughly analyzing the Ten-year Energy Plan (EPE, 2022b) as the main premise for price simulations. It also had the contribution of four specialists from the Brazilian electricity sector who evaluated the macro environment and the industry attractivity. Finally, the work concludes that the duck curve in Brazil will begin to form in 2026 tending to reach a more evident formation in the year 2031. However, it is estimated that the market risk premium for a solar generation agent to mitigate this risk through a swap contract would be less than 10 per cent of the face price of a long-term energy contract.
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