Título: | THE NON PERSISTENCE AND VARIABILITY OF GROWTH RATES OF COMPANIES LISTED AT BOVESPA IN THE PERIOD OF 1994-2002 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Autor: |
FELIPE CARDOSO DE GUSMAO CUNHA |
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Colaborador(es): |
ANTONIO CARLOS FIGUEIREDO PINTO - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 16/MAR/2005 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=6112&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=6112&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.6112 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The recent economy internationalization, the market
integration process and
the perspective of obtaining differentiated conditions
through scale led to
production restructuring and fomented a higher economic
concentration by means
of continuous mergers and acquisitions of companies. This
scenario inserts the
study of the variability and persistence of growth rates of
accounting indicators of
companies among the most relevant subjects of corporate
finance. The accounting
variables selected in this work were the annual growth
rates of the gross revenue,
of the EBITDA and of the operating profit of companies
listed at São Paulo Stock
Exchange (BOVESPA) during the period 1994-2002. The
observed variability
and the non persistence of the growth rates represents a
relevant obstacle to
forecasting exercises in the Brazilian market. Additional
simulations were
performed, in order to test the effect of the firms` size
and of the transaction
multiples of their respective stocks ont growth rates.
Looking for a deeper
understanding of the strong resistance to the persistence
of consecutive annual
rates above market median values along the eight years
period of analysis,
econometric tests essential to ARIMA model (Box and
Jenkins) were applied, and
the resuts portrayed the non correlation and non-partial
correlation between the
annual growth rates for all variables, characterizing a
classical white noise
process, signaling a typical random walk or a random walk
with drift behavior.
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