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ETDs @PUC-Rio
Estatística
Título: RETURN FORECASTING THROUGH DIVIDEND-YIELD IN BRAZILIAN STOCK MARKET
Autor: ERNANI SCHEIDEGER
Colaborador(es): MARCELO CABUS KLOTZLE - Orientador
Catalogação: 06/OUT/2022 Língua(s): PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL
Tipo: TEXT Subtipo: THESIS
Notas: [pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio.
[en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio.
Referência(s): [pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=60745&idi=1
[en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=60745&idi=2
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.60745
Resumo:
This work attempts to replicate the studies of John Cochrane on Return Previsibility through the Dividend-Price relationship to the Brazilian Stock Market. Using the Bovespa Stock Market Returns and the Excess Returns calculated from the Stock Market Returns less the risk-free interest in the form of Selic interest series as dependent variables, in relation to the Dividend Yield series provided by the Núcleo de Estudos Financeiros , from Universidade de São Paulo, from 2001 to 2021 as independent variable, a series of regression were calculated, using serveral different periods of future returns. The initial idea would be to confirm the main two propositions in Cochrane s work : the organization of asset pricing around discount- rates and if forecastability gains power as the return periods studied grow in size. In order to study the first idea, data should have been obtained on dividend payment from every Brazilian company that was part of the Brazilian Index, and that proved an impossible task at the moment. The work was restricted in its goal to verify if forecastability increases along increasing return timeframes.
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