Título: | RETURN FORECASTING THROUGH DIVIDEND-YIELD IN BRAZILIAN STOCK MARKET | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
ERNANI SCHEIDEGER |
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Colaborador(es): |
MARCELO CABUS KLOTZLE - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 06/OUT/2022 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=60745&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=60745&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.60745 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
This work attempts to replicate the studies of John Cochrane on Return
Previsibility through the Dividend-Price relationship to the Brazilian Stock Market.
Using the Bovespa Stock Market Returns and the Excess Returns calculated from
the Stock Market Returns less the risk-free interest in the form of Selic interest
series as dependent variables, in relation to the Dividend Yield series provided by
the Núcleo de Estudos Financeiros , from Universidade de São Paulo, from 2001
to 2021 as independent variable, a series of regression were calculated, using
serveral different periods of future returns. The initial idea would be to confirm the
main two propositions in Cochrane s work : the organization of asset pricing around
discount- rates and if forecastability gains power as the return periods studied grow
in size. In order to study the first idea, data should have been obtained on dividend
payment from every Brazilian company that was part of the Brazilian Index, and
that proved an impossible task at the moment. The work was restricted in its goal
to verify if forecastability increases along increasing return timeframes.
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