Título: | MACROECONOMIC AND REGULATORY DRIVERS OF CIP DEVIATIONS | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
RAPHAEL DE OLIVEIRA VASCONCELOS |
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Colaborador(es): |
MARCIO GOMES PINTO GARCIA - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 04/JUL/2022 | Língua(s): | ENGLISH - UNITED STATES |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=59864&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=59864&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.59864 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
Covered Interest Parity deviations (CIP) have been large and persistent
among G10 currencies since the global financial crisis in 2008. One of
the explanations for the CIP condition breakdown are the new banking
regulations that arose in the post-crisis period. On the other hand, CIP
deviations for the Brazilian economy have been associated with the EMBI+
index, which is a measure of country risk, as in Garcia and Didier (2003).
Building on the recent literature on Covered Interest Parity deviations (i.e,
the currency basis) among G10 currencies, I show the recent evolution of
the cross-currency basis for the G10 economies, during the 2020 pandemic
crisis, and then I study the macroeconomic and regulatory drivers of the
Brazilian currency basis. Using the regression approach of Cerutti et al
(2021), I find that the FX bid-ask spread has a prominent effect on the
real/dollar basis. Using a difference-in-differences approach, I find that the
Brazilian currency basis rises at quarter-ends, which is the period when
forward contracts appear on banks balance sheets. This points to a causal
effect of banking regulation on the currency basis, in line with Du, Tepper
and Verdelhan (2018).
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