Título: | STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR DECISION MAKING IN THE COMMERCIALIZATION OF ELECTRIC ENERGY IN BRAZIL | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
VICTOR CAMPOS VIEIRA DA ROSA |
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Colaborador(es): |
LEONARDO LIMA GOMES - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 13/JUN/2022 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=59495&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=59495&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.59495 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
With the advent of the new model for the electricity sector in 2004, market
agents were allowed to sell energy in the free market. Considering the nature of
these operations and the influence of meteorological variables on the formation and
volatility of prices, energy trading decisions are taken under conditions of
uncertainty, leading agents to seek contracting strategies to maximize the return on
assets or mitigation of the risks involved. In the Brazilian electricity sector, market
risk management is mainly accomplished through forward contracts, in order to
reduce the adverse impacts of PLD fluctuation. In this context, the objectives of this
study are to evaluate the applicability of two optimization models under
uncertainty, single-stage and two-stage stochastic, in the decision making of a
trading company and to compare the decisions recommended by the models. These
models used a preference function that allows representing the variation of the risk
aversion level considering different preference groups, having its parameters
determined by the Analytic Hierarchical Process. For the construction of the
forward curves of the two-stage stochastic model, the observed market price and
the 2,000 PLD series of the ONS official forecast were weighted. The results
evidenced the effectiveness in risk mitigation for the evaluated products.
Furthermore, due to the reduction in the cost of regret from the two-stage
optimization problem modeling, this model presented more cost-effective solutions
when compared to the single-stage model.
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