Título: | ESSAYS ON NOWCASTING WITH HIGH DIMENSIONAL DATA | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
HENRIQUE FERNANDES PIRES |
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Colaborador(es): |
MARCELO CUNHA MEDEIROS - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 02/JUN/2022 | Língua(s): | ENGLISH - UNITED STATES |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=59313&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=59313&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.59313 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
Nowcasting in economics is the prediction of the present, the recent past or
even the prediction of the very near future of a certain indicator. Generally,
a nowcast model is useful when the value of a target variable is released
with a significant delay with respect to its reference period and/or when
its value gets notably revised over time and stabilizes only after a while.
In this thesis, we develop and analyze several Nowcasting methods using
high-dimensional (big) data in different contexts: from the forecasting of
economic series to the nowcast of COVID-19. In one of our studies, we
compare the performance of different Machine Learning algorithms with
more naive models in predicting many economic variables in real-time and
we show that, most of the time, Machine Learning beats benchmark models.
Then, in the rest of our exercises, we combine several nowcasting techniques
with a big dataset (including high-frequency variables, such as Google
Trends) in order to track the pandemic in Brazil, showing that we were
able to nowcast the true numbers of deaths and cases way before they got
available to everyone.
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