Título: | STOCHASTIC ANALYSES OF THE SPREAD OF AN EPIDEMIOLOGICAL DISEASE | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
BEATRIZ DE REZENDE BARCELLOS BORGES |
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Colaborador(es): |
ROBERTA DE QUEIROZ LIMA - Orientador RUBENS SAMPAIO FILHO - Coorientador |
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Catalogação: | 29/NOV/2021 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=56215&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=56215&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.56215 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
This work analyzes the spread of an epidemiological disease with a
stochastic approach. In the analysis, the number of individuals that each
infected member of the population can infect is modeled as a random variable
and the number of infected individuals over time is modeled as a stochastic
branching process. The focus of the work is to characterize the influence of
the probabilistic model of the random variable that models contagion between
individuals on the spread of the disease and the probability of extinction, and
to analyze the influence of mass vaccination in controlling the spread of a
disease. The comparison is based on histograms and sample statistics of the
number of infected individuals over time, such as mean and variance. Statistical
models for the chapter dealing with a vaccine free population are calculated
using Monte Carlo simulations for 3 different families of random variables:
binomial, geometric-1 and geometric-0. For each of the 3 families, 21 different
distributions were selected and, for each distribution, 4000 simulations of the
branching process were computed. Statistical models for a partially vaccinated
population were calculated using Monte Carlo simulations for one family of
random variable: the binomial. For it, 21 different distributions were selected
and, for each of them, 6 different percentages of the vaccinated population
were chosen. For each of them, 4 different vaccine efficacy were stipulated. In
total, 2.2 million simulations were performed, featuring a big data problem.
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