Título: | INTERNATIONAL RESERVES AND THE EQUITY PREMIUM | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
RAFAELA BIANCA PINI RIZZO |
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Colaborador(es): |
CARLOS VIANA DE CARVALHO - Orientador EDUARDO ZILBERMAN - Coorientador |
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Catalogação: | 18/OUT/2021 | Língua(s): | ENGLISH - UNITED STATES |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=55328&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=55328&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.55328 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
Insurance is a possible explanation for the large holdings of international
reserves observed in many countries. Quantitative models of the insurance
motive, however, struggle to rationalize reserve positions, unless agents exhibit
relatively high levels of risk aversion. This result suggests a connection between
the international reserves puzzle and the equity premium puzzle, which we
explore in this paper. We introduce Epstein-Zin preferences into a standard
sovereign default model with long-term debt and a risk-free asset, and calibrate
it to the Mexican economy. We then price an equity claim within the model,
and use simulations to establish a positive relationship between optimal
reserve holdings and the equity premium, as we vary the degree of risk
aversion of domestic agents. Using an estimate of the equity premium for
Mexico, we calibrate the level of risk aversion and find it produces an optimal
level of international reserves that is close to the data. Finally, we provide
empirical evidence consistent with the relationship established with the model.
Specifically, we introduce estimates of the equity premium into standard
regressions used to explain countries holdings of international reserves. Using
both cross-sectional and panel specifications, we document a robust positive
association between these two variables.
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