Título: | METROLOGICAL EVALUATION OF SHORT TERM SOLAR IRRADIATION FORECAST MODELS ON THE EARTH SURFACE | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
RODRIGO HUBER MARQUES MOREIRA MENDES |
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Colaborador(es): |
ALCIR DE FARO ORLANDO - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 22/MAR/2021 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=51944&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=51944&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.51944 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
The prediction of the electric energy production by solar energy systems
can be used as a real time monitoring of its performance, allowing the
identification of operational problems or its performance degradation, as well
as the short and medium term production of electric energy, thus optimizing
the use of the electric network. Normally, the daylong climactic data prediction
is useful for helping stabilizing the electric network. The one or more day ahead
prediction of electric energy is a useful tool for planning the energy supply to
the market. The main goal of this research is to propose a short-term prediction
model for the solar irradiation by means of weather condition correlations,
in doing so, we expect to lower the uncertainties of the solar irradiation
forecast, for which can be used to forecast photovoltaic energy. The proposed
prediction model uses literature available correlations for clear sky (no clouds)
and overcast days, to predict the solar irradiation in other days, through the
use the ambient temperature and atmospheric transmission literature available
correlations. Several prediction models were used and combined for 1, 3, 5 and
7 days ahead prediction of the available average solar energy in that time
interval . It was concluded that the clear sky model plays an important role in
the prediction reliability. Experimental data taken every minute for almost four
years in the city of Miranda do Norte in the state of Maranhão, Brazil, were
used to verify and propose a model to better predict the available solar energy
irradiation, to within 22-24 percent, 14-16 percent, 13-15 percent and 12-13 percent uncertainty (95,45 percent confidence level), respectively for 1, 3, 5 and 7 days ahead of the available solar irradiation in the time interval. The least square model was also analyzed and it was shown to predict the solar irradiation with much higher
uncertainties. As a result, the proposed model can be easily implemented for
predictions in other places and can be very useful for predicting and planning
the daily and weekly output of photovoltaic plants. In this dissertation the
prediction model suggested by Bindi was utilized, together with three clear
sky models to reduce the prediction uncertainty.
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