Título: | PROBABILISTIC EVALUATION OF PETROLEUM PROSPECTS PRIOR TO WILDCAT WELL DRILLING | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Autor: |
CRISTINA DE LAS NIEVES ARANEDA FUENTES |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Colaborador(es): |
LEONARDO JUNQUEIRA LUSTOSA - Orientador |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Catalogação: | 07/JUL/2004 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=5150&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=5150&idi=2 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.5150 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Economics studies of areas with indications of hydrocarbons
are submerged in uncertainties of assorted natures
(geological, of engineering and economical). At the start
of the study, aspects concerning the geology, the fluids,
the rocks and the reservoir are only known through indirect
methods that yield imprecise information. The reduction of
these uncertainties is limited by high costs of drilling
wells that allow direct tests. Consequently, decisions on
exploration investments have to be made under risk. This
motivates the development of methods for probabilistic
economic evaluation of properties. This dissertation
addresses the probabilistic economic evaluation of
petroleum resources, prior wildcat well drilling. Assessing
the economic value of a property depends on estimates of
incomes and costs time profiles associated to its
development and production (D and P). Obtaining such elements
requires a D and P project for the property that, due to the
limited data available, is less detailed than a multi-
cellular simulation project. In this thesis, a probabilistic
evaluation methodology based on Monte Carlo simulation is
presented along with a prototype implementation. Performing
the numerous replications necessary to obtain a
probabilistic evaluation becomes feasible thanks to a
procedure capable of automatically generating the D and P
project. That procedure was developed by Petrobras based on
heuristic rules supplied by an expert. In addition to a
justification for the proposed approach, the description
of the method and its implementation, comments are made on
probability density functions used for encoding
uncertainties, and on the results of the initial tests with
the prototype system.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|