Título: | VALUATION OF REAL OPTIONS THROUGH THE LEAST SQUARE MONTE CARLO APPROACH | |||||||
Autor: |
RUBENS OLIVEIRA DE ARAUJO |
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Colaborador(es): |
TARA KESHAR NANDA BAIDYA - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 31/MAI/2004 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | |||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=4946&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=4946&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.4946 | |||||||
Resumo: | ||||||||
The main objective of this work is to test empirically the
efficiency and the accuracy of the Least Squares Monte
Carlo Approach (LSM) in the valuation of projects
involving real options. Initially, a series of sensibility
tests will be used for its validation. After this, some
examples of projects of petroleum exploration and
production (E and P) with real options will be elaborated, and
their values determined by LSM. The results will be
compared with those obtained using the binomial model. It
was chosen as benchmark to analyze the efficiency of the
LSM due to its simplicity and wide use. Due to
similarities between investments in financial and real
assets, many studies made with financial instruments have
been adapted for economic valuation of projects. Many
researches about real options were developed in
exploration of natural resources, especially in petroleum
E&P. This happens due to the volume of the investments
involved and to its peculiar characteristics: the
petroleum market is quite developed (presence of future
market, financial instruments of protection, derivatives
etc); the investments happen to be in an atmosphere of
economical and/or technical uncertainties; the projects
demand a series of managerial flexibilities (alternative
periods for execution of the investments, possibility of
changes in the scale of the project etc). Such
characteristics require a more careful evaluation of these
real assets. A new tool developed in this sense is the
LSM. The method consists of the valuation of american
options through simulations and simple regressions.
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