Título: | ANCHORED EXPECTATIONS AND THE TERM STRUCTURE OF BOND YIELDS | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
MARCELA CARVALHO FERREIRA DE MELLO |
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Colaborador(es): |
CARLOS VIANA DE CARVALHO - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 07/MAI/2020 | Língua(s): | ENGLISH - UNITED STATES |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=47919&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=47919&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.47919 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
The relation between asset prices, monetary policy expectations, and
macroeconomic data releases has long been assessed by the literature. This
dissertation addresses the implications of the anchoring or unanchoring
of long-run inflation expectations, as a stance of monetary policy, to
the term structure of bond yields. In particular, it aims to understand
how this mechanism is connected to the time-varying pattern of both
the volatility of nominal yields and their sensitivity to macroeconomic
surprises. To that matter, we present a New-Keynesian model with two
main characteristics. First, agents have subjective beliefs instead of rational
expectations. They learn about the inflation target set by the central bank
and their expectations may become anchored or unanchored over time, given
the state of the economy. Second, agents face time-varying risk aversion.
The model has one main prediction: the sensitivity of the term structure to
inflation surprises is not only time-varying, but state-dependent.
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