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ETDs @PUC-Rio
Estatística
Título: ANCHORED EXPECTATIONS AND THE TERM STRUCTURE OF BOND YIELDS
Autor: MARCELA CARVALHO FERREIRA DE MELLO
Colaborador(es): CARLOS VIANA DE CARVALHO - Orientador
Catalogação: 07/MAI/2020 Língua(s): ENGLISH - UNITED STATES
Tipo: TEXT Subtipo: THESIS
Notas: [pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio.
[en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio.
Referência(s): [pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=47919&idi=1
[en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=47919&idi=2
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.47919
Resumo:
The relation between asset prices, monetary policy expectations, and macroeconomic data releases has long been assessed by the literature. This dissertation addresses the implications of the anchoring or unanchoring of long-run inflation expectations, as a stance of monetary policy, to the term structure of bond yields. In particular, it aims to understand how this mechanism is connected to the time-varying pattern of both the volatility of nominal yields and their sensitivity to macroeconomic surprises. To that matter, we present a New-Keynesian model with two main characteristics. First, agents have subjective beliefs instead of rational expectations. They learn about the inflation target set by the central bank and their expectations may become anchored or unanchored over time, given the state of the economy. Second, agents face time-varying risk aversion. The model has one main prediction: the sensitivity of the term structure to inflation surprises is not only time-varying, but state-dependent.
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