Título: | ASSESSING THE VALUE OF NATURAL GAS UNDERGROUND STORAGE IN THE BRAZILIAN SYSTEM: A STOCHASTIC DUAL DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING APPROACH | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
LARISSA DE OLIVEIRA RESENDE |
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Colaborador(es): |
DAVI MICHEL VALLADAO - Orientador BERNARDO VIEIRA BEZERRA - Coorientador |
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Catalogação: | 04/MAI/2020 | Língua(s): | ENGLISH - UNITED STATES |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=47795&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=47795&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.47795 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
The current scenario of the Brazilian natural gas industry is characterized by low maturity and dynamism of the market.The stochastic behavior of Brazilian demand for natural gas, added to its associated market price volatility, motivates the usage of underground storage due to supply flexibility and protection against price fluctuations. However, the existing literature lacks a more robust analytical tool to support a quantitative analysis of the benefits that the UNGS activity could provide to the natural gas industry.
In this thesis, we propose a stochastic dynamic programming model for long/medium term planning to determine the supply optimal policy together with the possibility of storing gas. A markovian model characterizes thermoelectric demand while market price is represented by a stagewise independent
stochastic process. The proposed model is efficiently solved using the Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming algorithm for the Brazilian case study considering realistic data for the actual gas network and electric power system. For an exogenous but meaningful choice of underground storage location
and size, we observe the operational and economic benefits of the provided storage flexibility. Additionally, comparing the OPEX and CAPEX costs of investments in storage infrastructure in depleted fields and
salt caverns with the savings provided by storage in the supply operation, it is possible to observe the economic benefit of storage. The proposed framework provides an important quantitative support for discussion about Underground Natural Gas Storage infrastructure pricing and business models.
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