Título: | SIZING OF A NATURAL GAS STORAGE UNDER DEMAND AND PRICE UNCERTAINTY | ||||||||||||
Autor: |
LILIAN ALVES MARTINS |
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Colaborador(es): |
ALEXANDRE STREET DE AGUIAR - Orientador |
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Catalogação: | 26/FEV/2019 | Língua(s): | PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL |
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Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=37187&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=37187&idi=2 |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.37187 | ||||||||||||
Resumo: | |||||||||||||
In Brazil, natural gas demand has stochastic behavior since gas-fired power
plants operate in conjunction with the hydroelectric system. Natural gas supply to
these plants relies upon Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), imported through
cryogenic ships. LNG acquisitions must occur before the natural gas demand is
known because of the time of displacement of the ships. This lack of synchronism
stimulates the use of harmonizing mechanisms between the electric sector and the
natural gas sector. In this context, natural gas storage could be used to introduce
flexibility into the system and increase synergy between natural gas supply and
demand dynamics. However, the economic performance of the storage will
depend on actual gas prices and demand behavior during the period of analysis.
This study aims to construct a linear programming model to determine the size of
a natural gas storage under demand and LNG price uncertainty. The model is a
hybrid of a stochastic optimization algorithm – developed to consider gas demand
uncertainty – and a robust optimization algorithm – built to take into account
LNG price uncertainty. A convex combination between Conditional Value-at-Risk
(CVaR) and expected value is also used to indicate the supplier risk profile as well
as a security criterion, introduced to represent a deficit-averse supply process. At
the end, a hypothetic case is presented to evaluate the implementation of a natural
gas storage. The case presented uses public data from the Brazilian electric and
gas natural sectors and considers 2.000 demand scenarios and various levels of
robustness to LNG price variation.
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