ETDs @PUC-Rio
| Título: | STATISTICAL MODEL FOR PREDICTING THE SUPPLY OF HIGHER EDUCATION: 2015-2035 | ||||||||||||
| Autor: |
CLARENA PATRICIA ARRIETA ARRIETA |
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| Colaborador(es): |
REINALDO CASTRO SOUZA - Orientador RODRIGO FLORA CALILI - Coorientador |
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| Catalogação: | 03/OUT/2018 | Língua(s): | SPANISH - COLOMBIA |
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| Tipo: | TEXT | Subtipo: | THESIS | ||||||||||
| Notas: |
[pt] Todos os dados constantes dos documentos são de inteira responsabilidade de seus autores. Os dados utilizados nas descrições dos documentos estão em conformidade com os sistemas da administração da PUC-Rio. [en] All data contained in the documents are the sole responsibility of the authors. The data used in the descriptions of the documents are in conformity with the systems of the administration of PUC-Rio. |
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| Referência(s): |
[pt] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=35308&idi=1 [en] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=35308&idi=2 [es] https://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/projetosEspeciais/ETDs/consultas/conteudo.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=35308&idi=4 |
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| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.17771/PUCRio.acad.35308 | ||||||||||||
| Resumo: | |||||||||||||
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According to INEP/MEC, in the last 20 years, the number of
undergraduate higher education enrollments in Brazil has grown more than
twice, with an annual growth rate of 5,7 percent per year since 2001. According
to this institution, in 2008 there were 1.505.819 new students enrolled in
presential courses, while 1.479.318 vacancies were not filled, with 54.6 percent of the
total number of vacancies offered by the private sector. Given that São Paulo is
the largest state in Brazil, it is very important that the Ministry of Education
becomes aware of the dynamics of the offer of higher education in the next 20
years so that its actions (mainly public policies) can be successfully executed.
The objective of this study is to apply statistical modeling to estimate the
offer of higher education in the State of São Paulo in the period from 2015
to 2035, considering data from INEP about higher education. The motivation
for this work is to improve the planning of the offer of higher education and
to replicate the predictive model for other Brazilian states. The methodology
used concerns statistical modeling (linear regression models) and time series
(Holt). As a result, it is obtained the areas and/or courses where the federal
government should invest in the future, improving its planning.
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